The first job post comes after the raise, and the raise comes about 5 months after the company registers. Fundz scores each new registration in your states for the odds of a first raise, so you can reach the founder before the role exists. In a sealed Colorado test the top tier raised at 58 times the base rate; live on 2025 registrations, 1 in 38 filed a Form D within a year.
Each company was in the top tier when we scored its 2025 registration record alone, and announced a round within a year. Hits like these are the minority: about 1 in 38 top-tier companies filed a first Form D within a year. Checked against public reporting on Oct 14, 2026.
New company registrations in 12 states, scored every day for the odds of a first raise. The top tier comes first, so you read a short list instead of thousands of filings.
Arriving companies already exist and are registering in your state, the group most raisers came from. Just formed companies are brand new. Each sits in its own lane.
Each company comes with what it does, its website and the evidence behind the match, marked Confirmed, Likely or Unconfirmed, or "not on the web yet" when it is still quiet.
The people tied to each company on one card, so the next step is a call, not more research.
Move companies through New, In progress, Watching, Won and Passed, and mark Contacted, Replied or Meeting as you go.
Save the states and lanes you work, and export the list to CSV for your CRM.
Scored from the registration record alone. Sealed tests were opened once, at the end. The live check was measured in October 2026.
Our earlier score published a 0.97% rate for its second tier. It measured 0.11% and we withdrew it. Read the full method and results
Start at the company registration. A startup that registers in your state and has the profile of a company about to raise usually raises within months and then hires. Fundz scores new registrations in 12 states daily; in a sealed Colorado test the top tier raised at 58 times the base rate, and the median raise came about 5 months after registering. That is the window to reach the founder before the first job post.
Companies about to hire have already raised and are posting roles. That list is shared by every recruiter who reads funding news. Inception is earlier: companies that have not raised or posted yet, while the founder still picks recruiters by who reached out first. For the funded and hiring list, see Fundz's companies about to hire page.
About 70% of the companies that raised in the study were existing companies registering in a new state. A funded startup registering where you recruit is often about to put people there.
In sealed tests on 937,000 registrations nobody looked at while the model was built, the top tier raised at 6.19% in Colorado (283 of 4,574, 95% CI 5.53 to 6.92%), 58 times the base rate, and 4.20% in Connecticut (82 of 1,951), 79 times the base rate, in a state the model never saw. Checked live on 3,201 top-tier companies registered January to mid-October 2025, 2.7% (about 1 in 38, CI 2.2 to 3.3%) filed a first Form D within a year, 27 times the 0.10% base. Measured October 2026.
A score is odds, not a promise: most top-tier companies do not raise within a year. Scores are less certain in states that do not publish where a company was formed (Texas, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Mississippi, Ohio and DC). Fundz scores registrations in 12 states daily, so a company that registers only elsewhere is not on the list yet.
Strategic includes Inception plus the funded and hiring signals recruiters use after the raise. Book 15 minutes and we will pull up the top-tier companies registering in your states, or see plan options.
15 minutes on screen: tell us your states and the roles you fill, and we will pull up the ranked list with you. Inception is part of the Strategic plan.