The median company in our study filed its Form D about 5 months after registering. That gap is when founders pick the firm that papers the round. Fundz scores each new registration in your states for the odds of a first raise. In a sealed Colorado test the top tier raised at 58 times the base rate; live on 2025 registrations, 1 in 38 filed a Form D within a year.
Each company was in the top tier when we scored its 2025 registration record alone, and announced a round within a year. Hits like these are the minority: about 1 in 38 top-tier companies filed a first Form D within a year. Checked against public reporting on Oct 14, 2026.
New company registrations in 12 states, scored every day for the odds of a first raise. The top tier comes first, so you read a short list instead of thousands of filings.
Arriving companies already exist and are registering in your state, the group most raisers came from. Just formed companies are brand new. Each sits in its own lane.
Each company comes with what it does, its website and the evidence behind the match, marked Confirmed, Likely or Unconfirmed, or "not on the web yet" when it is still quiet.
The people tied to each company on one card, so the next step is a call, not more research.
Move companies through New, In progress, Watching, Won and Passed, and mark Contacted, Replied or Meeting as you go.
Save the states and lanes you work, and export the list to CSV for your CRM.
Scored from the registration record alone. Sealed tests were opened once, at the end. The live check was measured in October 2026.
Our earlier score published a 0.97% rate for its second tier. It measured 0.11% and we withdrew it. Read the full method and results
Reach companies between registration and the first raise, before outside counsel for the round is chosen. Fundz scores each new company registration in 12 states daily for the odds of a first raise. In a sealed Colorado test the top tier raised at 58 times the base rate, and the median company filed its Form D about 5 months after registering.
Every company that raises needs financing documents, an option plan and employment paperwork, and counsel for the round is chosen before it closes. The Form D is filed after the first sale, so by the time it is public the work is usually spoken for.
Yes, and they matter most. About 70% of raisers in the study were existing companies registering in a new state, often a Delaware corporation qualifying to do business where it operates. They sit in the Arriving lane; brand new companies sit in Just formed.
In sealed tests on 937,000 registrations nobody looked at while the model was built, the top tier raised at 6.19% in Colorado (283 of 4,574, 95% CI 5.53 to 6.92%), 58 times the base rate, and 4.20% in Connecticut (82 of 1,951), 79 times the base rate, in a state the model never saw. Checked live on 3,201 top-tier companies registered January to mid-October 2025, 2.7% (about 1 in 38, CI 2.2 to 3.3%) filed a first Form D within a year, 27 times the 0.10% base. Measured October 2026.
A score is odds, not a promise: most top-tier companies do not raise within a year. Scores are less certain in states that do not publish where a company was formed (Texas, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Mississippi, Ohio and DC). Fundz scores registrations in 12 states daily, so a company that registers only elsewhere is not on the list yet.
Inception is part of the Strategic plan. Book 15 minutes and we will pull up the top-tier companies registering in your states, or see plan options.
15 minutes on screen: tell us your states and practice focus, and we will pull up the ranked list with you. Inception is part of the Strategic plan.