Look at the registration, not the press release. Fundz scores each new company registration from the record alone. In a sealed Colorado test the top tier raised at 58 times the base rate. Live on 2025 registrations, 1 in 38 top-tier companies filed a Form D within a year, against 1 in about 1,000 overall. The median raise came about 5 months after registering.
Each company was in the top tier when we scored its 2025 registration record alone, and announced a round within a year. Hits like these are the minority: about 1 in 38 top-tier companies filed a first Form D within a year. Checked against public reporting on Oct 14, 2026.
New company registrations in 12 states, scored every day for the odds of a first raise. The top tier comes first, so you read a short list instead of thousands of filings.
Arriving companies already exist and are registering in your state, the group most raisers came from. Just formed companies are brand new. Each sits in its own lane.
Each company comes with what it does, its website and the evidence behind the match, marked Confirmed, Likely or Unconfirmed, or "not on the web yet" when it is still quiet.
The people tied to each company on one card, so the next step is a call, not more research.
Move companies through New, In progress, Watching, Won and Passed, and mark Contacted, Replied or Meeting as you go.
Save the states and lanes you work, and export the list to CSV for your CRM.
Scored from the registration record alone. Sealed tests were opened once, at the end. The live check was measured in October 2026.
Our earlier score published a 0.97% rate for its second tier. It measured 0.11% and we withdrew it. Read the full method and results
The best early predictor we have measured is the registration record itself. Fundz scored 1,714,963 company registrations and found that the top tier raised at 6.19% in a sealed Colorado test, 58 times the base rate of about 1 in 935. Most raisers (about 70%) were existing companies registering in a new state, not brand new ones. Fundz scores new registrations in 12 states daily and ranks them, so you see the few worth a call.
At registration. The median company in the study filed its Form D about 5 months after registering (middle half 51 to 337 days), before most press releases, job posts or funding databases mention it.
In sealed tests on 937,000 registrations nobody looked at while the model was built, the top tier raised at 6.19% in Colorado (283 of 4,574, 95% CI 5.53 to 6.92%), 58 times the base rate, and 4.20% in Connecticut (82 of 1,951), 79 times the base rate, in a state the model never saw. Checked live on 3,201 top-tier companies registered January to mid-October 2025, 2.7% (about 1 in 38, CI 2.2 to 3.3%) filed a first Form D within a year, 27 times the 0.10% base. Measured October 2026.
Mostly people who sell to companies right before or right after a first raise: recruiters, startup attorneys, bankers, payroll, benefits and insurance providers, and fractional CFOs, consultants and advisors. Investors use it too.
A score is odds, not a promise: most top-tier companies do not raise within a year. Scores are less certain in states that do not publish where a company was formed (Texas, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Mississippi, Ohio and DC). Fundz scores registrations in 12 states daily, so a company that registers only elsewhere is not on the list yet.
The ranked list (Inception) is part of the Strategic plan. Book 15 minutes and we will pull up this month's top-tier companies in your states with you, or see plan options.
15 minutes on screen: tell us the states and the kind of company you serve, and we will pull up the ranked list with you. Inception is part of the Strategic plan.